Hobart is Best

Tim Lawless for Core Logic shares the latest house price figures

Introduction – Best property market – Hobart, Tasmania

Ross Greenwood: Okay, let’s just go now, Tim Lawless from CoreLogic is with me now. Good day Tim, how are you travelling?

Interview – Tim Lawless, head of research at Corelogic RP Data

Tim Lawless: Yes, good evening Ross, I’m very well thanks.

Ross Greenwood: Very very good, thank you. Tell me about how suppose — I don’t think I have Friday’s numbers, but the best performing property market in Australia right now is the surprise. Just explain to people what it is.

Tim Lawless: It’s Hobart and I’m not really that surprised. What we’re seeing at Hobart — Actually, seeing the values rising at 13.6% per annum now, the highest in every capital city. Part of the reason for that is Hobart’s accelerating and it’s rate of capital gains. It’s gathering some momentum, it’s seen more buyers coming down since improving economic conditions and migration rates. It’s very affordable, it’s very early in it’s grave cycle. The other reason is, we’re seeing Sydney slowing down. So, Sydney is no longer the best performing capital city because the market’s losing some steam. Melbourne’s lost a little bit of steam as well, but it seems to be more resilient to a slowdown than what Sydney is.

Ross Greenwood: So, just explain the dynamics as to why a person would go and pay as much money as they’re paying in Hobart right now, when Perth for example, which has had significant falls, though into a lesser extent. I’m concentrating on the Perth market to a certain extent, and the reason for that, the fall from it’s peak has been significant. There’s been a pick up in iron ore prices in recent times. The house prices are becoming relatively close to the Hobart prices, which I think is historically not quite right. If you compare the Perth market now with it’s historic levels as compared with the Sydney or Melbourne markets, it’s the one that seems to me to be out of whack.

Tim Lawless: Well, yes. I probably agree with you. Actually, Perth is down a little bit more than 10% since the market peaked back in 2014. We’ve also seen yields come down because rent and real estate is very soft across the Perth market. We’re just going back to the values you were talking about. The typical house across the Perth market’s now worth about $484,000. Compare it to Sydney, where it’s still over a million dollars.

Melbourne’s are at double Perth’s, you can anything like 820,000. Then you can see there’s quite a substantial differential between the pricing of those cities. We’re actually seeing that, if you look at Perth the annual stalls that we’ve been seeing in values has started to taper away now. We’re still seeing values falling, but nowhere near the same sort of decline we were seeing say six months or 12 months ago. It looks like the market is approaching its floor which is good news for everybody in Perth.

Ross Greenwood: Okay, if we get house prices around the country right now threaten Sydney over the past quarter, you can almost quarterly numbers rather than just he monthly numbers because I can just jump around. Melbourne relatively strong, Brisbane pretty flat, Adelaide pretty flat, Perth going backwards as it has been, Darwin going backwards, Hobart going forwards at a strong rate along with Melbourne as well.

So, this is where people have got to to be conscious of the fact that if you start to slow down house prices and if the number of new homes being built is not rising rapidly, then ultimately if you’ve still got population growth coming into these major capital cities, you’re building up still a longer term problem if you haven’t got a little bit of growth. Those house prices have appeared to some. Not crazy growth, but a little bit of growth because you need more houses being built.

Tim Lawless: That’s exactly right. A few of those reasons is why we’re not expecting Sydney values to fall remarkably. They will probably will track a little bit lower, some modest falls but we’re still seeing mortgage rates going to remain very low. Lot of product demand. We’re still seeing an undersupply of housing, particularly in Sydney. Detached housing especially but also apartments. We’re also still seeing very strong population growth, particularly overseas migration coming into New South Wales. They’re probably just see things that will keep on going to keep the housing markets fairly propped up in Sydney. But Melbourne, not really. We’re still seeing Melbourne as a really strong market. Really strong migration rates. Strong jobs growth as well.

Ross Greenwood: The funny thing is, if you look at the Melbourne and Sydney markets for house prices especially, they’re coming back closer together. There’s around about $200,000 difference, 20% difference between those prices. That also is a pretty good litmus test of the relativities. Over a period of time, you would think that a faster growing population, that Melbourne prices are going to maintain that robustness over a very long time.

Tim Lawless: Yes, you think so. The other key metric is a benchmark which we tend to use is the yield. Melbourne yields are actually lower than what Sydney’s are. The typical house in Melbourne is now averaging just a 2.6% gross yield. Sydney’s are better than at 2.8%. Both are record lows. Both very low which does suggest that rents are out of balance with values. With Melbourne’s yield profile so low, it probably isn’t going to be all that attractive to investors. I wouldn’t be surprised if investors start to look at some of these markets that are really gathering momentum now, like Hobart. Brisbane’s probably another market that’s worth looking at.

Ross Greenwood: The Canberra market has just been fairly solid. I mean it followed Sydney up but it’s remained pretty solid. I mean the third best performing market around the country after Melbourne and Sydney on a title return basis over the year.

Tim Lawless: It is. Canberra went to really bounce back. We’ve seen some pretty decent wages growth across the public sector which is helping Canberra. There’s no of affordability situation across the Canberra market because household incomes tend to be a bit higher as well. Canberra did go through a bit of a slump. Post the 2010 election, there was a lot of news, talk about job shedding which never really eventuated but it did see a bit confidence falling in Canberra which has really bounced back now.

Ross Greenwood: Yes, tell you what, always good to have you in the program. Tim Lawless, the research director at CoreLogic looks after those house price numbers. It just gives you some idea about the relativity about them. We’ll take you through some of those key sales over the weekend a little later on the program with Jonathan Chancellor, but in the meantime, as always Tim, we appreciate your time.

Tim Lawless: Thanks very much.

Recommended Reading

01-08-2017 Two-tier property market

03-07-2017 Property gains over the second quarter of 2017 is losing steam

01-06-2017 House prices fall for the first time in 18 months

01-05-2017 Two hottest housing markets show signs of slowing down in April

03-04-2017 9News: ASIC goes after “interest only” loans

03-04-2017 Property prices surge – Core Logic

28-03-2017 Top 25 Best and Worst Performing Areas Over The Past 25 years

 

Money Minute – August 16 2017 Housing Crisis

Money Minute – August 16 2017 Housing Crisis Looming?

The housing issue in Australia is a problem that’s not going away anytime soon

In some capital cities, prices have soared out of reach of typical working families. In other capital cities, such as Perth and Darwin, prices have fallen for almost three years.

The government, Reserve Bank and bank regulator APRA have tried to slow the housing markets. But they have to be careful not to further hurt the vulnerable housing markets.

And while Dick Smith launched his campaign to slow population growth in Australia … one of our most noted housing researchers, Louis Christopher from SQM Research … has come to the same conclusion.

You can see here … in the last 20 years our annual intake of migrants from overseas has grown sharply – and last year was 208,000 people. That’s on top of the natural increase in our own population.

Louis Christopher’s point is that new migrants are tending to stay in the two big capital cities – Melbourne and Sydney.

Last year Victoria’s population grew at almost 2.5 percent … New South Wales almost 2 percent, Queensland about the same but South Australia, Tassie and WA were just half a percent.

Now with an ageing population – Australia needs younger workers, paying taxes. Dick Smith doesn’t buy that argument … but most economists and the government do.

Problem is, if everybody crams into Sydney and Melbourne … affordability issues get worse and worse. How do we know that? Because despite the so-called housing crisis – with too many apartments being built, rents in Melbourne and Sydney are going up, not down. Both are up around 3 percent in the last year.

So one option – radical I know – is that new migrants be granted a visa … on the condition they spent the first four or five years in regional areas – or in smaller capital cities. Sydney and Melbourne are out of bounds.

Hard to police? Sure. But it’s one answer to a problem where, right now, there are very few.

Markets

Dow Jones up 5. Dollar 78.2 US cents.

Other interesting articles related to Housing Crisis Looming

16-08-2017 Sydney and Melbourne incredibly strong

15-08-2017 Cut immigration to cool the housing market

10-08-2017 The collapse of the housing industry is on the way

07-08-2017 Budget pressure to be passed to the next generation

03-08-2017 Top 10 Variable Rate Home Loans for Aug 2017

01-08-2017 Two-tier property market

31-07-2017 New home sales at lowest level since 2013

26-07-2017 Foreign home owners to halve

26-07-2017 Inflation cools

24-07-2017 Housing crisis will force the younger generation to be permanent renters

06-07-2017 Housing market not in a bubble

04-07-2017 Ross Greenwood: Interest rates will remain on hold, so why are rises occupying minds?

The collapse of the housing industry is on the way

BIS Oxford economics managing director, Robert Muller, says we could see the housing construction industry fall 30 per cent in 3 years

Introduction: The Collapse of the housing industry is on the way

Ross Greenwood: There is something that’s holding really the economy together, at the moment. This is high-end building. Now, as you’re aware, Australia’s got what now the record for the longest period without a recession. Now, that is not only the mining boom that we had but we weathered the downturn largely because as interest rates fell, people got out there and started not only buying houses but building houses. This made up for the shortfall, incredible shortfall we had in many of our capital cities as their population increased.

Now, that building boom has just kept on going. As we know, the house prices, Melbourne, Sydney especially, have really gone to, well, many people claim, unsustainable levels, as compared with incomes but they’ve kept on going. Well, right now, BIS Oxford Economics is saying that the building boom is now past its peak. One of the best observers of real estate in this country is the BIS Oxford Economics managing director, Robert Miller who is on the line right now. Robert, great to have you on the program as always.

Interview: Robert Muller, Managing Director, BIS Oxford Economics

Robert Miller: Thanks very much, Ross. Good day.

Ross Greenwood: Just explain to me why you think the building boom is past its peak?

Robert Miller: Well, I suppose the evidence is already there in the fact that in the last 12 months, new residential building approvals are down about 8%. We’d say that probably translates into about a 6% decline in commencement terms, which is the way the industry measures it that still means activity is operating at about 219,000 starts across the country off the peak of about 232,000. But look, the last three years, we had about 220,000, just over starts a year for three years running on average, you could say.

The underlying level of demand, the number that we always calculate per se, trying to understand whether we’re building too many or too few. That calculation is based on population growth and people’s ability to form separate households. That number’s about a 184,000, so we’ve basically been satisfying a lot of that pent up demand. Yes, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. But in other parts of the country, it’s ultimately resulted in an oversupply.

Yes, probably at the moment, there’s a small deficiency, maybe in Melbourne and a reasonably, sniffing at numbers still in Sydney but elsewhere, yes, we are in significant oversupply in Western Australia, modest in South Australia, and Northern territory and clearly even in Queensland, particularly, in the inner city of Brisbane market, massively oversupplied.

Ross Greenwood: I’m going to say you’re optimistic in this regard. What do you reckon the catalyst has been for the decline in the new starts, in other words, the approvals going forward? Is it the attitude of the banks? Is it the attitude of the developers? Is it the attitude of the Government and Council? Who is pulling the breaks on?

Robert Miller: Look, I think they’ve done a sensible thing because yes– Well, sorry, the regulatory bodies in the financial sector, otherwise known as APRA, tied things up in terms of lending practices. That’s led the banks to have to change their interest rates with respect to interest-only loans to investors that have probably risen out and are maybe three-quarters of a percent in the last six months. There was obviously moves on their part two years or so ago.

That did lead to a little bit of slowing but basically, last year, things rebounded in the investor sector. Look, if they hadn’t taken that action, the market could’ve gone over the top even more. Yes, look, the market went right over the top, particularly in Brisbane and to a lesser degree, in Melbourne. Even Sydney is not sustainable at current construction levels in a long term sense.

Ross Greenwood: I was going to get to that point because quite clearly, as we’ve observed, it’s been that building boom that has largely held the Australian economy going, especially as the mining sector came off. If the building booming falls over the next three years, what’s holding the Australian economy up when you’ve got very strong forecast from the Reserve Bank and also from the Australian government in the budget? What is it that actually keeps the momentum in the economy going?

Robert Miller: Look, very simply, we won’t get 3% economic growth which is what treasury numbers are in the budget, if not this financial year, certainly, the two years beyond. We won’t get to 3%. I can —

Ross Greenwood: In other words, you’re saying the budget numbers basically a fool’s gold and even though as ideas, that you get back to surplus by 2020-21 that that’s certainly not only if you don’t achieve those budget numbers.

Robert Miller: No. It’s way over-optimistic and I think there’s already indications that the Reserve Bank probably in their latest statements that may be growth might be quite as strong as– previously expected. Yes, we would say it’s going to sit more in the 2.5-2.7 range over at least the next two years. Maybe even three years after 2020. It’d be foolish at the moment to think even if you wanted to suggest that forecast a little bit over pessimistic. And I’d have to say in 35 years of forecasting, most downturns end up being worse than my predictions and were pretty cyclical as a forecaster and conversely booms tend to be greater. If anything, I don’t think we’re overly pessimistic and if we are it’s probably only by a modest 5%. It’s really a question. We had a 5% decline. We’re going to see another 25%. Even if it is only 20% from current levels, yes, we will see construction back around 170,000 but could end up as low as 160,000 as we are suggesting it.

Ross Greenwood: It’s going to be really interesting for the Australian economy if that occurs. And that’s just a little warning sign out there for people to understand that forecast is coming from one the really best observers of our real estate industry over a very long period of time including building the managing director of BIS Oxford Economics, Robert Miller. And, Robert, as always, appreciate your time.

Robert Miller: Thank you very much, Ross.

 

Housing Industry related links on MoneyAction

31-07-2017 New home sales at lowest level since 2013

01-08-2017 Two-tier property market

31-07-2017 New home sales at lowest level since 2013

26-07-2017 Foreign home owners to halve

25-07-2017 Top 10 Fixed Rate Home Loans for 3 year July 2017

24-07-2017 Housing crisis will force the younger generation to be permanent renters

17-07-2017 Money Minute   July 17 2017  Melbourne the Best Housing Return

06-07-2017 Housing market not in a bubble

03-07-2017 9News: House Prices bounce back in June

03-07-2017 Property gains over the second quarter of 2017 is losing steam

29-06-2017 Housing:  The Ultimate Ponzi Scheme

26-06-2017 Australia s most affordable suburbs

02-06-2017 Money Minute   June 2 2017 Housing Wobbles

01-06-2017 House prices fall for the first time in 18 months

01-06-2017 NSW Housing Affordability Package – Dominic Perrottet

01-06-2017 NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian – Housing Affordability Package

01-06-2017 Tax hike on foreign buyers will worsen affordability

Two-tier property market

Tim Lawless from CoreLogic RP Data, talks about the July Home Value Index

Introduction: Two-tier property market.

Ross Greenwood:  The other thing I want to talk to you about tonight, is house prices. Now it seems as though right now after Sydney has led the housing market nationally for the past two to three years, that Melbourne is not only playing catch-up but is actually going past as we speak. Over the past month, the house prices in Melbourne have jumped by 3.1% compared with Sydney’s prices, which are up 1.3%.

However in Brisbane, in Perth, and in Darwin, prices have continued to fall, they are pretty soft. Brisbane is the big surprise amongst all of those, it’s housing prices pretty good. Adelaide, well, I’ve got to say, it’s an under performer but it’s very steady over a long period of time, and as I say, it’s just interesting to spot which capital cities are moving which way.

To help explain it, Tim Lawless the head of research at CoreLogic, that puts out those numbers. Tim, many thanks for your time. We should try and get the overall thing into straight on hold today, again. It’s not as though the housing markets on the east coast of Australia are falling in a massive hole as many people predicted, are they?

Interview: Tim Lawless, Head of Research, CoreLogic

Tim Lawless: No, not at all. I think what we’re seeing is probably more described as a controlled slow down, particularly in the case of Sydney. To put this into context, in the March quarter, Sydney dwelling values are rising at 5% over that three month period. We’ve seen the growth split back by in July to just 2.2%, still really strong. I think it’s undeniable but we have seen it slow down and say that probably where their growth is, is about halved over that time-frame but Melbourne hasn’t.

Melbourne has been much more resilient. We’ve been seeing Melbourne growth back in March, it was tracking at 4.2% over the quarter, the last three months it’s at 4.1%, so virtually unchanged and I think we can attribute that to just the strong jobs growth in Melbourne, the really strong population growth, right? Particularly during this immigration and the fact that Melbourne is not showing the same sort of affordability constraint as what Sydney is.

Ross Greenwood:  Okay, so affordability is the key but then explain to me Brisbane, because if they were looking for jobs, looking for places where population is rising, looking for places where there is opportunity, you’d actually imagine South East Queensland would be one of those and yet if you go and have a look at Brisbane prices and let’s take say, for example, house prices is a good example, down 0.6% for the month, down 0.8% for the quarter, year to date only up by 0.1 of a percent and for the year on year number, just 2.6%. It is very modest.

Tim Lawless: It is really modest and to add to that, the median house price in Brisbane is 528,000 is roughly half of what Sydney do at just over a million. I think the missing ingredients in Brisbane’s house price growth story it simply comes back to jobs growth. But as you mentioned, that is starting to wrap up now and so is interstate migration. A lot of those interstate migrants coming out of New South Wales into Queensland.

I think Brisbane’s time is probably just around the corner and I wouldn’t be surprised if this time next year, I think I’ve probably said this before, this time next year I wouldn’t be surprised if Brisbane is back up in one of the better performance.

Ross Greenwood:  Yes, that just is — it’s almost counter-intuitive but even if you go out there and have a look say, for example, well let’s do the yield as compared with Melbourne’s side for example, Mel, the yield on a house in Melbourne on average is 2.6%, in Brisbane, 4.1%. The yield on a unit in Melbourne 4% or 3.7% in Sydney. The yield on an apartment in Brisbane 5.3%.

Even though we know there’s a glut of apartments in Brisbane which might curtail the price, even as an income plague can generally borrow at less than 5.3%, you’re not really putting your hand in your pocket terribly much.

Tim Lawless: Yes, I think for investors, the yield scenario is going to become all of the more important. We are seeing lenders really focusing much more now on serviceability as well as making sure that you have a deposit, 20% or 10% deposit is becoming more important. I think for those investors that are active in the marketplace and looking for some growth opportunities, Brisbane it ticks the yield box, that’s for sure, but then also is very early in the growth cycle and much more affordable.

Ross Greenwood:  Okay. The one market that really does surprise me at all times is Canberra. Let’s go, for example, we’re talking about Melbourne and Sydney prices being very, very strong while say, for example, you’ve got Darwin and also Perth prices continuing to fall but have a look at Canberra, it’s just been absolutely a beauty.

House prices, year on year up 13.2%, year to date, up 7.2%, even the last month up 2.3% it’s pretty robust and the average price of a house 683,000, is more than Brisbane, it’s more than Darwin, it’s more than Hobart, it’s more than Perth, it’s more than Adelaide, and the only markets that are stronger then, are Melbourne and Sydney.

Tim Lawless: Yes, Canberra is a great market at the moment and it’s come out of a bit of a slump. If you recall back around 2010 when there was some job shedding or just speculation that the government be job shedding, the market did actually fall and it’s really started to bounce back now on the back of a very strong economy in the ICT, as well as the fact that it is very affordable. Not just in the sense of the prices are quite low compared to say Sydney, but also incomes are quite high across Canberra, we are seeing public wage rises actually outweighing or outpacing the private sector.

Ross Greenwood:  In regards to the Reserve Bank interest rates, it’s not making much difference, it’s not really what the Reserve Bank does at the moment, it’s actually what the lending institutions are doing and it’s really effect that investor, in particular, have just got to be able to afford the loans that they have got and be able to keep the ball in the area as it were.

Tim Lawless: Well, lenders are doing much of the heavy lifting here for the Reserve Bank in slowing down the markets so even though we haven’t seen the cash rate move since August last year, we have seen mortgage rates rising particularly for investors and now more so for more recently interest only loans. If you are an investor now, you’re probably paying about a 50 basis point premium over and now interest-only loans are also attracting about a 50 based point premium as well so if you are an interest only paying investor, you’re generally paying about 100 basis points higher than a principle of an interest owner occupier.

Ross Greenwood:  That might just help our next caller Rob who’s on the line, jumped on the line right now, good day Rob, you’re talking to Tim Lawless, how are you?

Rob calling into the conversation.

Rob: Evening gentlemen. Look, I’ve just got a query about the commercial side because houses, you look at houses and you have spend 700,000 or more, but a commercial property like an office or something like that, you might pick up one of those for maybe half that. How would the yield go on some of those smaller commercials?

Ross Greenwood:  Go on Tim, you keep yourself across this stuff as well as the housing stuff, what do you reckon? Because this is always the argument, why don’t people go ahead and buy commercial properties instead?

Tim Lawless: It’s a great question and I’m surprised more people don’t actually invest in the non residential sector. Maybe it’s because it is a little bit more foreign to some people or it could be a little bit more sophisticated, but you generally find in the non residential sector, particularly small office space, the yields tend to be higher. You generally expect a yield upwards of say 5% but the more commonly up are around a seven or 8% mark but the capital growths rates do tend to vary very much based on economic conditions, white collar jobs growth and so forth, but absolutely for a yield play and particularly for a lot of people investing in superannuation or self-managed in superannuation fund, then the commercial sector is very popular.

Ross Greenwood:  Yes, it’s going to be interesting to watch that, the other problem also is of course when you buy commercial property Rob, you’re not only taking a property risk, you’re also taking, you feel like a business risk because you’re going to pick the right tenant to make certain they don’t go bust and leave you as the owner in a hole and that is always one of the reasons why banks can be a little it more circumspect in lending to commercial property investors as compared with lending to residential investors where they think they have basically got almost a guarantee on you wages as well.

Rob is enduring just outside of Melbourne and Rob we appreciate your call and also to Tim Lawless the head of research at CoreLogic. Tim as always, a great report and we’ll talk to you next month as well.

Tim Lawless: Thanks Ross.

Other two tier property related articles and interviews with CoreLogic

03-07-2017 9News: House Prices bounce back in June

03-07-2017 Property gains over the second quarter of 2017 is losing steam

01-06-2017 House prices fall for the first time in 18 months

01-05-2017 Two hottest housing markets show signs of slowing down in April

20-04-2017 Investment Properties to be reigned in

11-04-2017 9News: House Prices set to fall in 5 years

10-04-2017 House Price Fall Looming

03-04-2017 Property prices surge – Core Logic

28-03-2017 Top 25 Best and Worst Performing Areas Over The Past 25 years

Property gains over the second quarter of 2017 is losing steam

Tim Lawless from CoreLogic RP data talks about the Home Value Index for June

Introduction: Property gains over the second quarter of 2017 is losing steam

Ross Greenwood: Property gains that are in the country. Being the beginning of the new financial year and of course, on the very first working day of each month we see an increase to house price numbers. What it shows is that the prices have bounced again in June compared with them falling in May. This is interesting because it’s both Melbourne and Sydney the big capital cities that are growing. In Brisbane house prices have pretty flipped back. It would be fair to say the apartment market is not as robust as the actual housing market itself. Tim Lawless who is the head of research at CoreLogic Applied Data is on line right now. Many thanks for your time Tim. Just tell me, how do I replace house price numbers today?

Interview: Tim Lawless, Head of Research, CoreLogic Applied Data

Tim Lawless: Yes, but the monthly numbers were actually quite strong. As you’ve said we’ve seen across the combined capitals a 1.8% rise over the month. I think that arbitrating those monthly numbers with a little bit of caution because they are quite seasonal. I think really looking at the trend, at the June quarter, for example, we’ve seen values rise by just 0.8 of a percent across the capital cities. Same in Sydney, Melbourne is up one and a half percent over the June quarter.

To put that into some level of context, if you look at Sydney back in the March quarter, we were seeing Sydney’s values rising at about five percent over that three months period and that quarter is right now falling back to just 0.8 of a percent. I think we are seeing some steam out of the market place. The values are still rising, absolutely, but market is starting to just loss some momentum. It’s just lying down there.

Ross Greenwood: The treasurer today and it seemed as if the governor was really on a mission to try and get back to business as usual after the internal ructions of the Liberal Party over the past week or so. The treasurer Scott Marson put as good as spin on this as he possibly could. Here is what he said today.

Scott Marson: Now, we’re seeing the outcomes of that now. That very careful approach that we have been encouraging and supporting. Now, having this impact in the markets in Sydney and in Melbourne where things are easing off but to a safe landing. Not the hard landing that Liberal’s policies would deliver.

Ross Greenwood: Yes, the real problem over this is, any policies that the government puts in place, that the regulators put in place to try and take this theme up of the property markets in Sydney and Melbourne, have an immediate impact on property markets in Darwin, Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane because it’s a national market and so what’s good for one is ultimately good for the other. That doesn’t help those markets which you’ve seen significant falls either in values or significant falls in demand.

Tim Lawless: You’ll see Darwin is a classic example here. We’re still seeing values falling in Darwin. They’re down to seven percent the last 12 months alone. They’ve been falling since 2014 so arguably Darwin doesn’t need any cooldown. Now that it’s passed I think both those markets could use a little bit of stimulus. We haven’t seen any sort of investment bounce back in there either of those markets. Any sort of a down trend that is required or at least the cooling in the market absolutely needs to be in Sydney and Melbourne. I think we are seeing the first signs of that starting to take place now.

Ross Greenwood: Here is that weak part of it though Tom. Tomorrow an interest rate comes in from the reserve bank probably expected to be on hold. There’s an increasing, if you like bathing of the Tom Tom drums, that rights will rise early next year or maybe into the middle of next year. What you say is absolutely true while it might be reasonable in Melbourne and Sydney which have got significant net mass migration at the moment. It’s positive, so there’s a demand for housing. There’s obviously been significant building in those capitals cities. The truth is that in Darwin path to a lesser extent. Brisbane certainly Adelaide they don’t want any interest rate increase because if there is any potential recovery in the housing market that will it’s stone dead.

Tim Lawless: Yes, I couldn’t agree more. The other side of that as well is some numbers just put up by the IBA late last week was the level of debt in Australia. That was updated up to the end of March and it showed that the housing price to income ratio– sorry the ratio of debt to income in Australia has just reached 190%. It’s never been that high. What that means is that if we do see rates moving higher, it just suggests that household have become even more sensitive to those very small movements. If we do see rates moving higher from where they are which mortgage rates are currently moving up, it probably means that we’ll see a bit of a slow down on household consumption which absolutely isn’t what the economy needs.

Ross Greenwood: The things that I keep on hearing is it might not necessarily be the housing market in the various tight capital cities is the problem at the moment, it is the apartment market. In particular, there are two cities that really to many stand out. One is Melbourne, the Brisbane. Now, we do on the same what’s taking place in Darwin and Perth but because of the over development some would argue in Brisbane and Melbourne they’re particularly potentially vulnerable especially if some of these apartments well, they can’t complete or the owners really do have difficulties even to try start the rise.

Tim Lawless: Yes, honestly the people that signed the contract two years ago then settled shortly, they might have a change in inability to get finance. Which either they can’t get their loan or their loan evaluation ratio is that it’s maybe behind what they expected or even worse than that. We are seeing a lot of evidence now that when people are settling for they’re off the plan unit purchase, it’s actually coming with evaluation that’s lower than the contract price. Immediately after settlement they’re under water in terms of their being negative equity plus they got to top up their deposits to meet the bank’s land evaluation ratio obligations.

Ross Greenwood: I’ll tell you what, it’s really going to be a big ongoing story. Not only over this year but then as the interest rates potentially starts to move next year as well. Tim Lawless does this numbers each month. The head of Research at CoreLogic and they have suddenly bounced back but as he says, watch those monthly numbers because they really can be a little allusly. Watch out the annual numbers or the quarterly numbers, they might just give you a slightly better indication. Tim as always we appreciate your time here on the program.

Tim Lawless: Thanks, Ross.

Other related articles

27-04-2017 Investor Property Loans

27-04-2017 Investment Property Fixed Rate

10-08-2017 The collapse of the housing industry is on the way

01-08-2017 Two-tier property market

03-07-2017 Property gains over the second quarter of 2017 is losing steam

12-06-2017 Dangers of SMSF s pushing people to buy property

16-05-2017 Property Price Drop

20-04-2017 I ll never be able to afford a house   and older generations don t give a damn

20-04-2017 Investment Properties to be reigned in

16-08-2017 Sydney and Melbourne incredibly strong

15-08-2017 Cut immigration to cool the housing market

10-08-2017 The collapse of the housing industry is on the way

03-08-2017 Top 10 Fixed Rate Home Loans for 3 year Aug 2017

01-08-2017 Two-tier property market

31-07-2017 New home sales at lowest level since 2013

26-07-2017 Foreign home owners to halve

Housing: “The Ultimate Ponzi Scheme”